In July, SMM's estimated production of refined bismuth in China is expected to decline slightly by around 1.4% MoM [SMM data]

According to SMM's assessment, China's refined bismuth production in July 2025 is expected to decline slightly by around 1.4% MoM compared to June's nationwide production. Following a sudden and significant drop in bismuth production in May, the production has maintained a downward trend for two consecutive months, which was within the expectations of many market participants. Market sources indicated that due to the ongoing tight supply of raw materials and recent environmental protection concerns, it is reasonable for producers to experience stagnant or even declining production. Judging from the recent competition for bismuth raw materials in the market, many bismuth raw materials were traded at high prices. For instance, the transaction price of a recent batch of bismuth concentrate was even close to that of finished products, indicating fierce competition for raw materials in the market. From the perspective of producers' production situations, some producers are still undergoing equipment maintenance, and many producers' production situations show a stable or slightly declining trend. As a result, the overall domestic production still declined compared to June, but the decline was no longer as pronounced as the previous month. In terms of detailed data, none of the 24 surveyed producers by SMM experienced a significant increase in production in July, but 2 producers resumed production after completing maintenance. Four producers experienced a significant decline in production, while the production of the remaining producers remained relatively unchanged. Many market participants predict that it will be difficult to alleviate the tight supply of raw materials for bismuth producers nationwide in August. Producers are currently facing fierce competition for production raw materials such as bismuth concentrate, and there is a high likelihood that production will continue to be affected. It is more probable that refined bismuth production will remain stable or continue to decline slightly, with a low likelihood of another significant drop.

Note: Since October 2022, SMM has been publishing its nationwide assessment of refined bismuth production. Thanks to SMM's high coverage rate in the bismuth industry, SMM surveyed a total of 24 refined bismuth producers, distributed across 8 provinces nationwide, with a total sample capacity exceeding 50,000 mt and a total capacity coverage rate as high as over 99%.

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